Hi Folks,
Well this forecast has high bust potential. This mornings models still have us getting our first significant snow. However the precip gradient is tight. The Pa border gets almost nothing whereas St Marys and Stafford counties get close to an inch of liquid precip. With DC at the half inch mark. So any change in track will drastically change precip amounts. Models have also not been real good at forecasting the current rain. This afternoon was forecasted to be dry. So here goes. Precip will re-energize tomorrow and end tomorrow evening. Forecast temperature profiles do indicate precip starting as a rain/snow mix which changes to all snow by late afternoon. However, the surface temperatures are forecasted to be in the 32-34 range for most of the event so it will be a wet snow. Hence accumulations will be hard to come by during the day on the streets and will mostly be on car tops and grassy surfaces with snow not accumulating on the streets until sunset. Snow tomorrow evening tapering to flurries tomorrow night.
Here's my revised accumulation guesses:
0-3" for Frederick, Carroll, Howard, north Montgomery & Baltimore Counties, Loudoun Co Va
3-6" for south Mont., Fairfax, DC, PG , AA, Arlington, Charles, Calvert Co
4-8" for the areas south of Fairfax Co va and Charles Co Md ( including Fredericksburg Va.)
Again this will probably change. Pass the Pepto.
Be prepared for a long drive home tomorrow night. Temperatures are forecasted to go below freezing tomorrow night so any untreated roads will have icy patches.
-Rico
Well this forecast has high bust potential. This mornings models still have us getting our first significant snow. However the precip gradient is tight. The Pa border gets almost nothing whereas St Marys and Stafford counties get close to an inch of liquid precip. With DC at the half inch mark. So any change in track will drastically change precip amounts. Models have also not been real good at forecasting the current rain. This afternoon was forecasted to be dry. So here goes. Precip will re-energize tomorrow and end tomorrow evening. Forecast temperature profiles do indicate precip starting as a rain/snow mix which changes to all snow by late afternoon. However, the surface temperatures are forecasted to be in the 32-34 range for most of the event so it will be a wet snow. Hence accumulations will be hard to come by during the day on the streets and will mostly be on car tops and grassy surfaces with snow not accumulating on the streets until sunset. Snow tomorrow evening tapering to flurries tomorrow night.
Here's my revised accumulation guesses:
0-3" for Frederick, Carroll, Howard, north Montgomery & Baltimore Counties, Loudoun Co Va
3-6" for south Mont., Fairfax, DC, PG , AA, Arlington, Charles, Calvert Co
4-8" for the areas south of Fairfax Co va and Charles Co Md ( including Fredericksburg Va.)
Again this will probably change. Pass the Pepto.
Be prepared for a long drive home tomorrow night. Temperatures are forecasted to go below freezing tomorrow night so any untreated roads will have icy patches.
-Rico
